Consumo, Renda e Investimento no Real

Abstract

This article deals with the new phase of the “Plano Real” whose characteristic is the combination of continuous inflation rate decline with the decline of Brazilians' income and consumption. The reduction of consumption and income is due, to a certain extent, to the fact that the “Plano Real” is unable to expand the investment expenses and thus is unable to have a sustained growth. The core of the problem is found in the enormous external vulnerability of the country due to the adopted stabilization strategy. Consequently, economical growth and exchange rates are liable to sudden interruptions and changes which affect the continuity of demand growth and businessmen's profit expectations. Under these conditions, uncertainties and fears increase and it is very difficult to create an expectant attitude that favors investments. A proof to this assertion is that the evolution of investment expenses as a proportion of the GNP has not increased within the “Plano Real”.